Introduction to Tour de France Wagering
Hello, cycling fans. My name is Mark, and I have owned ZcycleShop.com for over fifteen years. I have been around bikes my whole life. I have sold thousands of bikes. I have fixed thousands more. And I have watched the Tour de France every single year since I was a kid. Over that time, I have learned a lot about the race. I have also learned a lot about betting on the race.
The Tour de France is the biggest bike race in the world. It runs for three weeks. It covers over 3,500 kilometers. It has 21 stages. It goes through mountains, flat roads, and time trials. Millions of people watch it on TV. And many of those people place bets on it.
I want to share my knowledge about Tour de France betting. My customers ask me about it all the time. They want to know who to bet on. They want to know when to bet. They want to know how much to bet. I have been betting on the Tour for many years. I have won some. I have lost some. But I have learned a lot along the way.
This article is for anyone who wants to bet on the Tour de France. Whether you are new to betting or have done it before, you will find useful information here. I will explain the different bet types. I will talk about the riders and teams. I will give you strategies that work. And I will tell you about the mistakes to avoid. For example you can bet on bicycle racing here https://vivatbet.ie/en/line/bicycle-racing
Why the Tour de France is Great for Betting
The Tour de France offers many betting opportunities. Here is why I think it is one of the best events to bet on.
First, the Tour has many stages. There are 21 stages over three weeks. Each stage is a separate race. You can bet on each stage. You can also bet on the overall winner. This gives you many chances to win.
Second, the Tour has many different types of stages. Some stages are flat. These favor sprinters. Some stages are hilly or mountainous. These favor climbers. Some stages are time trials. These favor riders who are good against the clock. With so many stage types, there are betting opportunities for every kind of rider.
Third, the Tour has many markets. You can bet on the yellow jersey (overall winner). You can bet on the green jersey (points classification). You can bet on the polka dot jersey (King of the Mountains). You can bet on the white jersey (best young rider). You can also bet on stage winners, head-to-head matchups, and many other things. This variety keeps betting interesting.
Fourth, the Tour is unpredictable. Crashes happen. Weather changes. Riders get sick or injured. A rider who looks unbeatable can lose on any given day. This unpredictability creates value for smart bettors. Bookmakers cannot predict everything. If you do your research, you can find bets that offer good value.
Fifth, the Tour attracts a lot of betting attention. Big bookmakers offer many markets. They also offer promotions and bonuses. This gives you more ways to bet and more chances to win.
Types of Bets You Can Make
There are many ways to bet on the Tour de France. Here are the most common bet types.
Outright Winner (General Classification)
This is the most popular bet. You pick the rider who will win the overall race. The rider with the lowest total time after 21 stages wins the yellow jersey. This bet is placed before the race starts or during the first few stages. The odds change as the race goes on.
The outright winner market is one of the biggest in cycling betting. The favorites usually have low odds. The outsiders have high odds. Picking the winner is hard because many things can happen over three weeks. Form, team support, crashes, and tactics all matter.
Stage Winner
This is a bet on who will win a specific stage. Each of the 21 stages is a separate race. You can bet on each one. Some riders target stage wins instead of the overall classification. They might not try to win the whole Tour. They focus on one or two stages where they have a good chance.
Stage winner bets are popular because they offer more chances to win. You can bet on sprinters for flat stages. You can bet on climbers for mountain stages. You can bet on breakaway specialists for hilly stages. The odds for stage winners are often better than for the overall winner.
Top 3 or Top 10 Finish
Sometimes picking the exact winner is too hard. A top 3 or top 10 bet gives you a better chance. You bet that a rider will finish in the top three or top ten of the overall classification. The odds are lower than for an outright win. But your chance of winning is higher.
This bet type is good for riders who are strong but not the absolute favorite. For example, Remco Evenepoel is often tipped for a podium finish. Betting on him for the top 3 might be a smart move.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Bookmakers pair two riders together. You bet on which rider finishes higher in the overall classification or in a specific stage. This reduces the field to just two riders. It makes the bet easier to win.
Head-to-head bets are very common in the Tour. You can bet on Pogačar vs Vingegaard. You can bet on Evenepoel vs Roglič. You can bet on sprinters like Milan vs Philipsen. These bets are great because you only need to compare two riders, not the whole field.
Points Classification (Green Jersey)
The green jersey goes to the rider who scores the most points. Points are awarded for stage finishes and intermediate sprints. Flat stages offer more points than mountain stages. This jersey usually goes to a sprinter.
Betting on the green jersey is different from betting on the yellow jersey. You need to look at which sprinters are in good form. You need to see how many flat stages there are. You need to check if the top sprinters are targeting the Tour.
In 2025, Jonathan Milan is the favorite for the green jersey at odds of 15-8. Jasper Philipsen is close behind at 10-3. Wout van Aert is at 5-1. These odds show who the bookmakers think will win the points competition.
King of the Mountains (Polka Dot Jersey)
The polka dot jersey goes to the best climber. Points are awarded for reaching the top of categorized climbs first. The harder the climb, the more points are available. This jersey usually goes to a rider who excels in the mountains.
Betting on the King of the Mountains requires knowledge of the route. You need to know which stages have the most and hardest climbs. You need to know which climbers are in good form. You also need to know which riders are targeting this jersey instead of the overall win.
Riders like Richard Carapaz are often mentioned as contenders for the polka dot jersey. Giulio Ciccone and Michael Storer are also among the possible candidates.
Best Young Rider (White Jersey)
The white jersey goes to the best rider under 25 years old. This is based on the same overall time as the yellow jersey. The youngest rider with the best time wins this jersey.
Betting on the white jersey is a good option if you follow young riders. You need to know which young riders are strong enough to compete for the overall classification. Remco Evenepoel won this jersey in the past. Other young riders like Juan Ayuso are now emerging as contenders.
Future Bets
These are long-term bets placed months before the race. You bet on who will win the Tour before the season even starts. Future bets offer very high odds. But they are risky. Riders might get injured. Riders might lose form. Teams might change their plans.
For example, Chris Froome was a big favorite for the 2019 Tour. But he had a bad crash during training and missed the race. Anyone who bet on him lost their money. Future bets are for people who are willing to take big risks for big rewards.
Live Betting (In-Play Betting)
Live betting means placing bets while the race is happening. Odds change as the race progresses. You can react to what is happening on the road. If a rider attacks, their odds might shorten. If a rider crashes, their odds might lengthen.
Live betting is exciting. It allows you to use information that is not available before the race. You can see which riders look strong. You can see which teams are controlling the race. You can see the weather conditions. All of this helps you make better decisions.
But live betting requires quick thinking. You need to watch the race closely. You need to understand how tactics work. You need to know when to place your bet. It is not for everyone, but it can be very rewarding.
Prop Bets
These are bets on specific events within the race. Examples include:
- Which rider will wear the yellow jersey after stage 1?
- Will there be a crash on the first stage?
- How many stages will a certain rider win?
- Will a breakaway win a specific stage?
- Which team will win the team classification?
Prop bets are fun because they add extra excitement to watching the race. But they are harder to predict. They require specific knowledge about the riders and the race dynamics.
Understanding the Odds
Odds are the numbers that bookmakers use to show how likely something is to happen. They also show how much you can win. Understanding odds is important for successful betting.
Decimal Odds
Decimal odds are common in Europe. They show the total return for each unit you bet, including your original stake. For example, odds of 2.50 mean that if you bet $10, you get $25 back ($15 profit plus your $10 stake). This format is easy to use for quick calculations.
In the 2025 Tour, Tadej Pogačar had decimal odds between 1.35 and 1.50. This means bookmakers thought he had a very high chance of winning. Remco Evenepoel had odds around 9.50 to 16.00. This means bookmakers thought he had a lower chance.
Fractional Odds
Fractional odds are common in the UK. They show the profit you can make relative to your stake. For example, 5/1 means you win $5 for every $1 you bet, plus you get your $1 stake back. This format is good for seeing the risk-reward relationship at a glance.
In the 2025 Tour, Pogačar was listed at 9/20 (very short odds). Jonas Vingegaard was at 13/5. Remco Evenepoel was at 14/1. These fractions show that Pogačar was the heavy favorite.
American Odds
American odds use positive and negative numbers. Positive numbers (+200) show how much you win on a $100 bet. Negative numbers (-200) show how much you need to bet to win $100.
In the 2025 Tour, Pogačar was listed at -290 on DraftKings. This means you had to bet $290 to win $100. Vingegaard was at +250. This means a $100 bet would win $250.
What Odds Tell You
Odds are not random. Bookmakers analyze many factors to set them: rider form, weather conditions, past performance on similar terrain, and team strength. When odds move, it can mean new information has come out. A rider’s odds might shorten if they win a warm-up race. Their odds might lengthen if they crash or get sick.
You should always compare odds across different bookmakers. One bookmaker might offer +750 on a rider, while another offers +900. The better odds give you a larger return if your bet wins. Shopping around for the best odds is a simple way to improve your results.
The 2025 Tour de France Favorites
To bet well, you need to know who the top riders are. Here is a look at the main contenders for the 2025 Tour de France.
Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates XRG)
Pogačar is the big favorite. He has won the Tour three times – in 2020, 2021, and 2024. He is the reigning champion. He also won the Critérium du Dauphiné, a key warm-up race, in dominant style. He has won 11 races in 2025 already.
Bookmakers have Pogačar as the clear favorite. His odds are very short – around -290 or 1.35 to 1.50. Some experts give him an 80 to 85 percent chance of winning. He has a very strong team supporting him, including João Almeida and Adam Yates.
Pogačar is strong in every type of terrain. He can climb, sprint, and time trial. He is also very consistent. He rarely has a bad day. This makes him very hard to beat.
Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike)
Vingegaard is Pogačar’s main rival. He has won the Tour twice – in 2022 and 2023. He has never finished outside the top two at the Tour. He crashed at Paris-Nice in March, which affected his preparation. But he finished second at the Dauphiné, showing he is getting back to form.
Vingegaard’s odds are around +250 or 2.75 to 3.30. He is the only rider who bookmakers think can really challenge Pogačar. He has a very strong team at Visma-Lease a Bike.
Vingegaard is an excellent climber and time trialist. He has beaten Pogačar before. But he needs to be at 100 percent fitness to have a chance.
Remco Evenepoel (Soudal Quick-Step)
Evenepoel is the third favorite. He finished on the podium in 2024. He is a great time trialist and has improved his climbing. His odds are around +1000 or 9.50 to 16.00.
Evenepoel is still young and learning. He has the talent to win the Tour one day. But in 2025, he is seen as a contender for the podium rather than the win.
Primož Roglič (Red Bull-Bora-hansgrohe)
Roglič is a four-time Vuelta a España winner. He has changed teams recently. His odds are around +2800 or 21 to 26. He is 35 years old, but his race craft and consistency keep him in contention.
João Almeida (UAE Team Emirates XRG)
Almeida is Pogačar’s teammate. He is a strong climber and time trialist. His odds are around +1800 or 16 to 36. He is a contender for a podium spot.
Other Contenders
Other riders with odds under 100-1 include Florian Lipowitz (+3000), Matteo Jorgenson (+4000), and Felix Gall (+10000). Simon Yates is also at +10000. These riders are long shots, but cycling can be unpredictable.
Factors That Affect the Race
Many things can change who wins the Tour. Here are the most important factors to consider when betting.
Rider Form and Fitness
The most important factor is how the rider is performing right now. A rider who is in good form can win. A rider who is tired or sick cannot. Check recent results. Check how riders did in warm-up races like the Dauphiné or Tour de Suisse. These races give you a good idea of who is ready for the Tour.
Pogačar’s dominant win at the Dauphiné showed he was in top form. Vingegaard’s second place there showed he was getting there. This kind of information is very useful for betting.
Team Support
Cycling is a team sport. The best riders have strong teams. Strong teams can control the race. They can chase breakaways. They can set a pace that drops rivals. They can protect their leader from wind and crashes.
Pogačar has a very strong team at UAE Team Emirates. He has João Almeida, Adam Yates, and Tim Wellens supporting him. Vingegaard also has a strong team at Visma-Lease a Bike. A rider with a weaker team will struggle more.
Course Profile
The route changes every year. Some years have more mountains. Some years have more time trial kilometers. Some years have cobblestones. The course favors certain types of riders.
In 2025, the course has many mountain finishes. This favors explosive climbers like Pogačar. There are also flat stages for sprinters. There are time trials for riders who are good against the clock. You need to study the route before you bet.
Weather Conditions
Weather can change everything. Rain makes roads slippery. Crashes happen more in rain. Wind can split the peloton. Riders at the front can gain time. Riders caught behind can lose time. Heat can make riders suffer. Cold can make riders struggle.
Check the weather forecast before each stage. This is especially important for live betting. If rain is forecast, think about which riders are good in wet conditions.
Crashes and Mechanical Issues
Crashes are common in the Tour. The peloton is packed with riders. One small touch can send many riders down. A crash can end a rider’s chances. A broken bike takes time to fix. Time lost can be impossible to make up.
In 2023, Vingegaard crashed but still won. In other years, crashes have cost riders the race. You cannot predict crashes. But you can consider which riders are good at avoiding them. Riders who stay near the front are safer.
Tactics and Strategy
Teams have plans for each stage. Some teams want to win stages. Some teams want to protect their GC leader. Some teams are aggressive. Some teams are defensive. Understanding team tactics helps you predict what will happen.
For example, a team might send a rider in a breakaway to put pressure on rivals. Or a team might ride hard on the front to drop sprinters before a climb. Watch how teams race. Learn their patterns.
Nutrition and Hydration
Riders need energy for three weeks. They eat and drink during each stage. Bad nutrition causes bonking – when a rider runs out of energy. Good teams have nutrition plans. They provide food and drink at feed zones. A rider with good nutrition will have steady energy. A rider with bad nutrition will fade near the end.
Experience
Experienced riders know how to manage a three-week race. They know when to attack. They know when to rest. They know how to position themselves. Young riders make mistakes. They might attack too early. They might follow the wrong wheel. They might not save enough energy.
Pogačar and Vingegaard both have experience winning the Tour. Roglič has experience winning Grand Tours. Evenepoel is still learning. Experience matters in the Tour.
Betting Strategies for the Tour de France
Having a strategy helps you win over time. Here are strategies I recommend for Tour de France betting.
Bet on Value, Not Just Favorites
Many bettors only bet on favorites. This is a mistake. Favorites have low odds. You win small amounts. Sometimes the favorite is too short. The odds are not worth the risk.
Look for value. Find riders who have a real chance but have higher odds. For example, Vingegaard at +250 offers better value than Pogačar at -290. If you think Vingegaard has a 40 percent chance of winning, +250 is a good bet. If you think he has only a 20 percent chance, it is not.
Value betting is about finding odds that are higher than the true probability. This takes practice. But it is the key to long-term success.
Bet on Specialists
Some riders are specialists. They only excel in one area. Sprinter’s win flat stages. Climbers win mountain stages. Time trialists win time trials. Bet on specialists in their best stage types. This gives you better odds. It also reduces risk.
For example, Jonathan Milan is a sprinter. He is the favorite for the green jersey. Betting on him to win flat stages is a good strategy. Betting on him to win mountain stages is not.
Hedge Your Bets
Hedging means betting on multiple outcomes. This reduces your risk. For example, you can bet on Pogačar for the overall win. You can also bet on Vingegaard for specific stages. If Pogačar wins the Tour, you win your main bet. If Vingegaard wins some stages, you win those too.
Hedging gives you more chances to win. The profit is lower. But your chance of winning is higher. This is a good strategy for beginners.
Use Live Betting
Live betting allows you to react to what is happening in the race. Odds change as the race progresses. You can bet on a rider who looks strong. You can bet against a rider who looks weak.
For example, if a breakaway gets a big lead, you can bet on them to win the stage. If a favorite crashes, you can bet on their rivals. Live betting gives you information that is not available before the race.
But live betting requires quick thinking. You need to watch the race closely. You need to understand tactics. You need to know when to act.
Follow the Money
Sometimes sharp bettors move the odds. They place big bets on certain riders. This causes the odds to drop. You can follow the money. If a rider’s odds drop, it might mean someone knows something. Following the money can help you find value.
Bet Against the Public
Public bettors often overreact. They bet on famous riders. They bet on recent winners. These bets push the odds too low. You can bet against the public. Find riders who are overlooked. These riders often have better value.
For example, after Pogačar won the Dauphiné, many people bet on him. His odds became very short. Betting on Vingegaard at that point might have offered better value.
Keep Records
Keep a record of your bets. Track your wins and losses. Track which bet types work for you. Track which stages work for you. Use this information to improve. Records help you learn from your mistakes. They help you find your strengths.
Manage Your Bankroll
Set a budget for your Tour de France betting. Decide how much you can afford to lose. Never bet more than this amount. Bet a fixed percentage of your bankroll on each bet. Many bettors use 1-2 percent. This prevents big losses. It also helps you survive losing streaks.
Do not increase your stakes after losses. This is a common mistake. Bettors increase stakes to recover losses. This often leads to more losses. Stick to your plan.
Common Mistakes in Tour de France Betting
Many bettors make these mistakes. Avoid them to be successful.
Betting with Your Heart
Many fans bet on their favorite riders. They love a rider. They ignore the facts. This is betting with your heart. It leads to losing money. Bet with your head. Use logic and data. Leave your emotions aside. The riders do not care about your feelings. They race to win.
Ignoring Team Dynamics
Cycling is a team sport. Some bettors forget this. They only look at individual riders. But teams matter a lot. A strong team can make a weak rider look good. A weak team can make a strong rider look bad. Understand team dynamics. Bet on teams as well as riders.
Not Diversifying Bets
Some bettors put all their money on one bet. This is risky. One crash can ruin everything. Spread your bets around. Bet on different stages. Bet on different riders. Diversification reduces risk.
Chasing Losses
Losing is part of betting. Everyone loses sometimes. Chasing losses is a bad habit. It means betting more to win back lost money. This often leads to bigger losses. Accept losses. Stay with your strategy. Don’t chase.
Overlooking the Route
The route changes every year. Some years favor climbers. Some years favor sprinters. Some years favor time trialists. You need to study the route before you bet. Do not assume that last year’s favorites will win this year.
Not Considering the Full Three Weeks
The Tour is three weeks long. A rider can be strong in the first week and fade in the third. A rider can be weak in the first week and get stronger. You need to think about the whole race, not just the first few stages.
Ignoring Warm-Up Races
Riders show their form in warm-up races like the Dauphiné and Tour de Suisse. These races give you important information. A rider who wins the Dauphiné is usually in good form for the Tour. A rider who struggles there might not be ready. Pay attention to these races.
My Personal Experience with Tour de France Betting
I have been betting on the Tour for many years. I have had some big wins. I have had some big losses. Here are some of my stories.
In 2020, I bet on Pogačar before the Tour started. He was not the favorite. Many people thought he was too young. But I had watched him race. I saw his talent. I placed a bet at good odds. He won the Tour. I won a lot of money.
In 2023, I bet on Vingegaard. He had crashed earlier in the year. Many people thought he would not be ready. But I knew he was a fighter. I placed a bet on him. He won the Tour. I won again.
But I have also lost. In 2022, I bet on a sprinter for the green jersey. He crashed in the first week. His race was over. I lost my money. In 2024, I bet on a rider for a stage win. He attacked too early and got caught. I lost again.
These experiences taught me lessons. You cannot predict everything. Crashes happen. Tactics fail. Riders have bad days. You must accept losses. You must learn from them.
Today, I use a balanced approach. I research the route. I check rider form. I compare odds. I diversify my bets. I manage my bankroll. This approach works for me.
Tips for Beginners
Here are quick tips to get you started with Tour de France betting.
- Start with small bets. This is the best way to learn.
- Focus on one bet type. Master it before trying others.
- Watch the race live. This helps you understand the action.
- Read race previews. These give you expert insights.
- Keep a betting diary. This helps you see what works.
- Take breaks. Don’t bet every day. Rest your mind.
- Have fun. Betting should be enjoyable. It is not a job.
Conclusion
The Tour de France is the biggest bike race in the world. It offers many betting opportunities. There are many bet types. There are many stages. There are many riders to choose from. With the right knowledge and strategy, you can enjoy the race even more and maybe win some money.
Remember to do your research. Study the route. Check rider form. Understand team tactics. Compare odds across bookmakers. Use value betting. Manage your bankroll. Avoid common mistakes.
Most importantly, enjoy the race. The Tour de France is a beautiful event. It has drama, excitement, and history. Betting adds another layer of fun. But the race itself is the main event.
At ZcycleShop.com, we love cycling. We sell bikes and gear. We support riders. We also support fans who want to bet on the sport. We provide the best equipment. We provide the best advice. We are here to help you succeed.
Thank you for reading my article. I hope you found it helpful. If you have questions, you can contact me. I am always happy to talk about cycling. I am always happy to talk about betting. Visit my shop. Say hello. Let’s share our passion for this great sport.
Good luck with your bets. And may the best rider win.
Mark
Owner, ZcycleShop.com
P.S. Always bet responsibly. Gambling should be fun. It should not harm you or your family. Set limits. Stay within them. If you need help, seek it. There are resources for problem gambling. Don’t be afraid to use them. Your health and happiness matter more than any bet.